美国科技行业2021年展望：云有四面墙-瑞信-2021.1.6-132页.pdf

2021 Outlook The Cloud Has Four Walls DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 6 January 2021 Research AnalystResearch AssociateResearch Associate Sami Badri Communications Equipment and 2 COVID-19 then acted as an accelerant for digital transation, turning many enterprises to a WFH model, and growing gaming and video streaming to new heights. All in, we believe the stars are aligned for enterprise demand to accelerate in 2021E creating a favorable situation for MTDCs. Hyperscale Capex Spend Projected to Grow 14.7/5.4 in 2021E/2022E, Driving More Business to MTDCs Hyperscale Capex is a leading indicator for the Multi-Tenant Data Center industry largely because 60 2020 assumption of all data center space, power, cooling, and interconnection is outsourced to third party data centers MTDCs rather than built and maintained by the cloud service providers insourcing. We expect this percent of outsourcing to begin indexing closer to the 50 range through 2021E, largely a by-product of the vast scale the MTDCs have gained over the last five years, driving even more business to MTDCs, especially wholesale providers that have specialized in large scale data center developments across top tier markets. Notably, across Tier 1 European Markets cloud providers have been reported to outsource almost 100 of capacity as they seek to collaborate with experienced operators when globally expanding. Backlog Intensity Has Surged Above 2018 Highs MTDC backlogs remain high as of 4Q20, and backlog intensity backlog / last quarters annualized revenue has leveled at 7.2, above the last major high water mark levels seen in mid-2018 6.4 in 3Q18. We expect intensity to come down in 2021E as major data center builds are delivered to customers, commencing backlog revenues. Review Using history as a guidepost, following the 1H18 high backlog intensity levels, 2019 was a year of pronounced outperance with strong commenced leases, revenue growth, and further follow-on leasing activity, strengthening the financial visibility and supply chains of MTDCs. We expect 2021E to see similar characteristics as 2019, a year that several publicly traded data centers outpered market indices and comparable asset classes. MTDC Construction Intensity at 3.7 in 3Q20, As U.S. Hyperscale Capex Spend is Accelerating in 2021, Signaling Increases in Outsourcing in 2021E U.S. hyperscale capex spend is accelerating in the U.S. to 16 y/y growth, but the construction intensity ratio is at 3.7 in 3Q 2020 and we e