中国正在重置其经济底层逻辑（英）-摩根士丹利-2021.8.1-52页.pdf

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1、MM China Macro Opportunities amid Headwinds domestic brands get increasing prominence Insurance: The promotion of medical insurance and pensions helps alleviate funding pressure caused by aging population of government-backed social insurance plans. Food delivery / ride hailing: The announced guidel

2、ines around platforms resonsibility in riders social insurance present risks to profitability of food delivery business. Platform companies: Forced exclusivity will not be allowed, more moderate M the fintech regulation serves Over the last 9 months, China has imposed new regulations on fintech, big

3、 tech, after-school tutoring, cryptocurrency, and carbon emissions. Here is our attempt to de-mystify Chinas regulatory reset, explore which business models could be affected under the new model, and identify signposts for future regulatory changes. the purpose of curbing regulatory arbitrage and fi

4、nancial stability risks; and the increased scrutiny over Chinese ADRs and cross-border data flow in July 2021 mainly focuses on reducing risks of security amid lingering geopolitical tensions. Similarly, the recent regulatory changes to after-school tutoring are part of policy efforts to reduce chil

5、d-raising costs. In short, China is trying to rebalance the rise in corporate power and the share of labor compensation, and this may lead to some systematic de-rating in valuations for some sectors. Having said that, policymakers will have to strike a balance, as Chinas ambition to thrive as an eco

6、nomic super power will require it to ensure con- tinued private sector vitality to spur innovation and further RMB internationalization to attract capital inflows, so as to sustain long- term productivity growth. While the new regulations introduce more requirements on social responsibility and data

7、 usage, and might lead to some increase in margin pressures for related enterprises, we think they will not disrupt business models for most sectors (except for after-school tutoring). For instance, the anti-trust law mainly focuses on banning tech-giants from requiring merchants to sign exclusive c

8、ooperation pacts, while the governments guidance on enhancing flexible workers social benefits mainly requires food delivery platforms to pay healthcare and pension coverage for out- sourced employees. Online goods sales have also held up quite well recently despite the tech regulation campaign star

9、ting from late last year. Meanwhile, some regulatory changes are supportive for advanced manufacturing, hardware localization, and clean energy supply chain. M Morgan Stanley Research11 M Exhibit 11:Shift of policy priority from eliminating extreme poverty over the past decade 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

10、18 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Rural Population in Poverty (2010 Standard) Population in mnPoverty Rate - RS Source: CEIC, Wind, Morgan Stanley Research Exhibit 13:Shift of policy focus from pro-growth to pro-poor Source: Xinhua, Morga